- US Durable Goods
- The Fed’s preferred inflation measure
- Central bank speakers
Monday 27th June
Overnight the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will release its Summary of Opinions. This is the primary tool used by the BOJ to communicate its economic projections to investors, including those for inflation and economic growth. Monday is also Day 2 of G7 Meetings. Participants will have plenty to talk about given the war in Ukraine, global inflation and tightening monetary policy, but are unlikely to come up with much in the way of answers. Similarly, expect further confusion from ECB President Christine Lagarde when she delivers a speech at 18:30 BST. From Germany we have Import Prices, Retail Sales, and the Bundesbank Monthly Report. From the US we have Pending Home Sales, but the big data release is Durable Goods.
Tuesday 28th June
It’s a day of second order economic data releases. Overnight we have the BOJ Core CPI. It is also Day 3 of G7 Meetings. Then we have German GfK Consumer Climate survey. Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee member Jon Cunliffe is due to participate in a panel discussion titled “Central bank digital currencies and the digital euro project” at the ECB forum on central banking, in Sintra. From the US we have the Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, the S&P/CS Composite-20 House Price Index, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index.
Wednesday 29th June
Overnight the British Retail Consortium releases its latest Shop Price Index, and Japan updates on Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence. Australia also reports its latest Retail Sales. From the Euro zone we have M3 Money Supply, Private Loans, German Preliminary CPI, and Spanish Flash CPI. There’s also an Italian Bank Holiday. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will all contribute to a panel discussion titled “Challenges for monetary policy in a rapidly changing world” at the ECB forum for central banking, in Sintra. From the US we have Final GDP and Crude Oil Inventories. Loretta Mester, a voting member of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC is expected to participate in a panel discussion, again at the ECB forum on central banking. FOMC voting member James Bullard will also be speaking, but this time from the US.
Thursday 30th June
Overnight we have Japanese Preliminary Industrial Production, Housing Starts, New Zealand Business Confidence, and Australian Private Sector Credit. China will update on its Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs. From the UK we have the Current Account, Final GDP, and Revised Business Investment. From Switzerland we have the KOF Economic Barometer and Retail Sales. We also have unemployment updates from Germany, Italy, and the Euro zone. From the US we have Weekly Jobless Claims, Personal Income, Personal Spending, and the Chicago PMI. But the most important release by far is the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. This is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, perhaps because it tends to undershoot the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The last update, for April, came in at +4.9% year-on-year, which represented an easing from +5.2% in the prior month. April’s figure was also a 4-month low. The concern for the US central bank is that Core PCE starts to pick up again, as did the latest headline CPI number, giving let another signal that US inflation has yet to peak.
Friday 1st July
It’s another busy day for economic data releases, but once again most are second order. From Japan we have Tokyo Core CPI, the Unemployment Rate, and the Tankan Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices and the Final Manufacturing PMI. We also have Manufacturing PMIs from China, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the Euro zone, the UK, and US. The latter is an important update as it is the key US ISM Manufacturing PMI. In April 2021 this hit a level of 64.7, its highest reading since January 2004. But it has fallen back sharply ever since, missing expectations by a wide margin in March and April. But last month it surprised to the upside, coming in at 56.1 against an expected 54.4. Any number above 50 represents expansion in the manufacturing sector, so that was a piece of good news. But it remains to be seen if the positive surprises will continue, or if last month’s data was a one-off. We also have the CPI Flash estimate for the Euro zone, along with US Construction Spending and Total Vehicle Sales.
